In-person early voting began yesterday to large numbers compared to years past. According to Jonathan Kappler over at the North Carolina Free Enterprise Foundation (NCFREF), 132,814 voted yesterday compared to 121,209 who voted on the first day of early voting in 2014. Back then, we only had ten early voting days and this year we have 17, so we could be seeing a significantly larger turnout. We won’t know until all the vote is counted.
Of the people who voted yesterday, 43% were Democrats, 31% Republicans and 26% Unaffiliated. It’s hard to read anything into those numbers because Democrats tend to vote early while Republicans tend to vote on election day. To give it some context, though, in 2014, Democrats made up 47% of the total early vote, Republicans 32% and unaffiliated voters 20%. If the numbers from today hold, the big question will, “Who are those unaffiliated voters?”
That said, the national mood seems to be trending back toward Democrats after a couple of weeks that energized Republicans. In North Carolina, the election will be about the president and the national conversation. In this Blue Moon election, none of the state’s concerns can compete with what’s coming out of the White House.
Kavanaugh is off the front pages, replaced by the brutal murder of a journalist in the Saudi Embassy in Turkey that the Trump administration appears to be covering up. It won’t change the minds of the hardcore Trumpers but it might turn off some conservative voters. Trump’s clear support of the people who committed the grisly crime will probably motivate liberals and progressives to get more people to the polls.
In addition, the tax cut Republicans hoped to run on, hasn’t been felt by middle America, despite strong economic numbers. Instead, it’s exploding the deficit and Republicans are saying we need to cut Social Security and Medicare to reduce the debt and deficit. In other words, they’re going to cut benefits to middle America to pay for tax cuts for the very rich. It’s what Democrats warned would happen.
Overall, the final weeks of the election cycle looks a lot like the rest of the cycle. The national conversation is dominated by Trump and an exploding deficit caused by GOP policies. A Supreme Court case pushed by Republicans could bring back pre-existing conditions. An already motivated Democratic base has more reason to go vote while moderate Republicans have little reason to be excited. The election will be good for Democrats. Turnout will determine whether it will be great.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
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