Here’s an interesting quote Senator Bob Rucho (R-Matthews) made two weeks ago that didn’t get much attention:
“There will be millions of dollars worth of Republican money coming in if Tillis is the nominee. The money will follow Tillis. It won’t necessarily follow the other candidates.”
What that means is that Brannon or Harris could find themselves without a paddle if they somehow receive the nomination. If the Tea Party rejects their candidate, establishment Republicans will only be too happy to return the favor. The fact of the matter is, North Carolina isn’t absolutely essential to Republicans’ winning a Senate majority. They have so many opportunities in other states, there’s some room for error. Yes, forfeiting NC would hurt, no doubt, but they could make up for it by winning in states like Iowa, Colorado, Michigan. If Greg Brannon gets nominated, it’s not the end of the world. This is, after all, just one seat, a fact which might be obscured by the incredible deluge of ads we’re seeing.
There was a similar dynamic in the 2010 Democratic primary between Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham. The DSCC felt Cunningham was the best person to put up against Richard Burr. The voters disagreed. After that, the DSCC took their ball and went home. Marshall was effectively stranded and ended up losing to Richard Burr in the fall by 12 points. She would have lost anyway, but the lack of national support made the loss worse.
Now if Brannon gets nominated, I’m sure a SuperPAC somewhere will rush to his aid, but the NRSC and other national Republican organizations will sit on their hands, and some would say for good reason. To get Brannon over the finish line would require a significant investment in money and resources. What’s the payoff? If you invest with Brannon, there might not be any.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
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