Some Republicans in North Carolina seem poised to make a classic post-victory mistake. They are interpreting their win this year as a validation of their policies. They should be more concerned with the obvious dissatisfaction voters showed toward the overreach of their Republican Revolution.
For most of the year, the Hagan campaign successfully kept the electorate focused on Republican policies passed by the General Assembly. As long as voters thought about tax breaks for the rich, cuts to education and restrictions on women’s health, Democrats led. Only in the final weeks of the election, when the national political environment soured and voters focused on foreign policy issues and Hagan missing meetings, did Thom Tillis finally overtake the incumbent.
In two years, we’re likely to see much of this battle fought again. This time, though, the combatants will likely be Gov. Pat McCrory and Attorney General Roy Cooper. Cooper will have a much more favorable electorate than Hagan and McCrory won’t be able to shift the focus to national issues.
To give McCrory and his team credit, they seem to understand their predicament. The governor is desperately trying to reinvent himself as the moderate voters elected in 2012. He’s talking about expanding Medicaid and suing the legislature.
McCrory can only run so far, though. He signed the bills that most upset voters. In particular, he owns the tax cuts that benefitted only the wealthy and big businesses and are leaving a massive hole in the budget. More cuts to public schools and universities, the state’s largest expenditures, will likely come with a political price.
Expect McCrory to focus on problems with the SBI crime lab. It’s probably his best hit. He may try to reach back to some issues in Cooper’s legislative record but comparing the 1990s to the past four years is risky business. It could remind voters that under Democrats, our schools improved and our economy boomed.
On the bright side for Republicans, McCrory could have a better environment for incumbents than Hagan had. Nationally, the economy is improving and North Carolina is no exception. If wages are improving and unemployment is down, McCrory will claim credit and hope that a more optimistic electorate will give him another chance despite budget problems and cuts to education.
Regardless, Republicans should see more caution in the election results than vindication. They almost lost a Senate seat in GOP wave year because of their legislative policies. North Carolina Democrats had a better year than their counterparts in other swing states. If they try to push ahead with their ideological agenda, they could see more of a backlash from a presidential year electorate.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
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