A lot of people on the Republican side are now conceding that Trump has staying power. It’s been four months since he’s gotten into the race, and every month has seen predictions of his impending demise. The longer he stays at the top of the polls, the more the GOP establishment is coming to grips with the fact that a Trump nomination is not an impossible scenario.
Already, some party veterans are starting to consider that Trump could well lead the top of the ticket next year. Alex Castellanos (who played a role in some NC races in the past) now says he has “unhappily” changed his mind about the possibility of a Trump nomination. What’s really telling, he states, is that Trump was losing ground in the polls last month and then steadily rose upward again. Once voters have “doubts” about a candidate and return, typically they don’t have doubts again – their support solidifies.
The takeaway: those who think Trump’s support is just going to inevitably collapse are kidding themselves. He has a good 20%-30% of the vote locked up in the early primary states and nationally. The GOP’s best hope is that an establishment figure comes along and coalesces the anti-Trump vote. But the clock is ticking for that to happen. As Castellanos notes, no GOP nominee in recent history has lost both Iowa and New Hampshire. If Trump wins them both, the momentum for his candidacy will be overwhelming.
Of course, a lot could happen between now and February, when the first votes are counted. Maybe the next two debates will mark the end of Trump. Maybe he’ll make a gaffe on the campaign trail that even he can’t recover from – or a scandal will emerge that destroys his credibility.
No one knows what will happen, but everyone is holding their breath and waiting for Trump to screw up. It’s been four months and he hasn’t yet – not in the eyes of primary voters, that is. There are less than four months until Iowa. Perhaps, then, it’s time for the prognosticators to reevaluate Trump’s chances and start treating him like all the polls say he is – the frontrunner.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Between the US House of Representatives and the coming Republican Convention (early on purpose I might add) Republicans at there very best will be on display. All of which will dovetail nicely for the November 2016 elections. Unfortunately during all that entertainment our country will become the laughing stock of the world.
Isn’t it already?
A lot of polls are garbage. Some of those polls say that Trump is attracting significant support from blacks and Hispanics. Anyone believe that?
What took you and your GOP establishment comrades so long?
It took me only two months –not four– into Trump’s candidacy to conclude that he indeed had “staying power,” and very well could seize the GOP nomination. His xenophobia, nativism, bombast, and simpleton’s view of complex issues resonates well with—and is in lockstep with— the GOP’s arch-conservative base.
Why not sit back and enjoy it, Mr Wynne? His being in the driver’s seat of the GOP Clown Car is your party’s own creation and own doing!
Trump adequately represents the sizable portion of Republicons who exhibit xenophobia, nativism, and sexism. While Republicons are shrinking their constituency, Democrats are developing support from moderates and blue collar workers who don’t want their Medicare and social security cut.
After the past few years of the Tea Party/GOP rants, they deserve Trump (and Carson). However, this country does not. We need a genuine two party system, which is not likely to the case much longer if Trump and the Tea Party continue to rule the GOP.