Fifty-five percent of Americans live in suburban communities, so any analysis of “suburban” politics necessarily requires some nuance. Nonetheless, I think most readers will understand what political observers mean when they refer to the suburbs. That category entails neighborhoods located outside of urban cores but with extensive commuting ties to some form of urban conurbation, a well educated population, and moderate politics. For the last 40 years as America became more suburban, these pleasant communities have been the primary battleground where elections were won or lost.

The first suburban communities to emerge as truly competitive tended to be blue-collar in nature. In the 1970s and ’80s, working-class Americans (mostly male breadwinners) still enjoyed enough prosperity that they could afford to live relatively comfortably in suburbs close to their jobs. But due to a historic spike in crime and social changes that discomfited suburban workers, places like Macomb County, Michigan became boiling pots of ascendant conservatism. Race was the watchword. Ronald Reagan knew that they knew what he meant when he complained of “strapping young bucks” buying luxuries with government benefits. Over the next two generations, working-class suburbs would become solid Republican.

At the same time, affluent suburbs built on the nascent knowledge economy began to shake loose from their conservative roots. Doctors, lawyers, and other professionals had previously tended to think of themselves as Republican entrepreneurs. But these professionals along with the newfangled computer programmers and biotech mavens more and more saw their work as an exercise in quality and personal expression, so the Babbitt-ish capitalism of the GOP lost much of its appeal. Further, as the Republicans relied increasingly and cultural and racial appeals to win elections, knowledge workers found themselves repelled by their ancestral party. Now, Democrats regularly win the wealthiest towns in America by thumping margins.

But the GOP never entirely lost its viability in suburban America. How could they, and still win elections in a suburban country? It would’ve been impossible for them to win with only their rural base. So they pursued a politics aimed at frightening suburban voters with threats to their cherished way of life. Suburbanites have a lot to lose, so conjuring dark shadows composed of terror attacks, dangerous criminals, and terrifying seas of fiscal red ink kept the GOP in the game when the suburbs went to vote.

Donald Trump was the most fear-oriented candidate ever. But his revolting personal depravity so disgusted the educated American mandarin class that Republicans became, essentially, noncompetitive in suburban America during his presidency. Fortunately for Republicans, he’s gone–at least until after the midterms. And they have the opportunity to deploy fear as a tactic to reel crucial suburban voters back into their coalition. It’s clear as day everywhere you look.

The model here is Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin. Youngkin himself resembled the comfortable suburban dads and moms who decided elections in much of the country. And he also, cynically, understood how to scare them into his column. After one insignificant gaffe by Terry McAuliffe, every Republican in the country is echoing Youngkin’s ridiculous line that Democrats do not want parents involved in their children’s education. People care more about their children’s future than anything else in life, and this distortion seems to have struck a cord in suburban areas that seemed to have realigned into the Democratic Party. Also prevalent are dark warnings about crime, and antifa, and the ubiquitous specter of Mexican border-crashers.

“They have strong emotions when dealing with security,” said nativist Congressman Tom Tancredo at the height of his Colorado suburb’s Republicanism. “Border security, the security of their families, the security of their neighborhoods.” Suburbanites, like most of the country, have moved to the left since Tancredo’s comment 20 years ago. But Democrats face their own their own threat: that suburban Democratic support was a flash in the pan generated by the monstrous Donald J. Trump, and that people who had long voted Republican are about to come home to the GOP.