Hurricanes affect politics in North Carolina. Two years ago, Matthew hit North Carolina the second week of October and left devastating flooding in its wake. People throughout the southeastern part of the state were left homeless or with severe storm damage. In those areas, voter turnout dropped significantly. It’s hard to think about elections when you’re worrying where you’re going to live.
We’re just starting to learn the real impact of Florence. Rivers are still cresting and much of that water will be around for weeks. Again, people who might otherwise be voting will be trying to rebuild their lives instead.
However, hurricanes don’t just impact elections because they alter the electorate. They also alter the conversation. Politicians who botch a recovery effort can pay dearly. Think Katrina and George W. Bush. Politicians who perform admirably strengthen their position. Think Jim Hunt after Fran in 1996. In 2016, Matthew bolstered Pat McCrory’s image for his handling of the storm even though it was too late to save him.
Florence is already having an impact. Governor Roy Cooper’s team got out in front of the storm and is getting wide praise. Donald Trump, who botched the Maria response in Puerto Rico last year, is making all the right noises. He’ll be on the ground today in North and South Carolina. Republican Rep. Richard Hudson (NC-08), whose district is suffering massive flooding, is striking a bipartisan pose, praising Cooper and the cooperation between state and federal agencies even though Hudson voted against aid to victims of storms in other states. It’s a smart move in a year that looks favorable to Democrats.
The aftermath will bring up more political issues. Toxic sludge is certainly floating around in all those flood waters. Hog lagoons have been swamped and some of that waste is certainly floating toward the ocean. Coal ash pits have been flooded and some accounts say that they’ve been breached. The impact could shift the political debate in districts that are affected.
Going into the election, the impact of Florence could dominate the election cycle in eastern North Carolina. A low turnout will most likely hurt Democrats and strong performance by Trump could lessen the concern about him as president. However, Republicans’ insistence on standing by Duke Energy and the hog industry might make them targets of ire if residents return to their homes and find themselves mired in toxic waste. With hurricane season overlapping election season, the storms always have the potential to shape the political process in North Carolina.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
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