North Carolina Republicans seem to be feeling confident. The 2010’s were all in all a fine decade for the GOP, particularly at the federal level, where they were almost dominant. That record of success, in addition to the availability of an open seat, will likely draw up to a dozen candidates into the Republican primary for the 2022 Senate race.
By the time he leaves office, Burr will have held the seat for 18 years. He will have been the longest-tenured U.S. Senator North Carolina has had since the retirement of Jesse Helms. His record is unimpressive; after a quarter century in one house of Congress or another, he can point to no moments of significance greater than the halfhearted investigation he led into Donald Trump’s Russia ties. Still, he managed to win three elections in a row in a state that until recently had a habit of throwing out Senators after one term.
The question becomes whom Republicans will nominate to fill his shoes. Of the possible candidates, one has already made the race: Mark Walker. A three-term Congressman from the Greensboro area, Walker was one of the better-known members of the state’s Congressional delegation and will bring credibility with social conservatives. He has the charisma of an evangelical preacher and the political savvy to defeat Phil Berger, jr., a scion of the most powerful Republican in the state. In addition, his early start will help him get established before other candidates get in. It could put pressure on the other folks to run if they plan to enter the race.
Rumors are swirling that Walker announced so early in order to ready himself for a battle with Lara Trump. The outgoing president’s daughter-in-law presents an interesting case for Republicans looking to hold this seat. On the one hand, she’s clearly a carpetbagger with no accomplishments to speak of in public service and bears the name of a loser. The last (only?) politician to return to the state after years away from it was Elizabeth Dole, who happened to be one of the most accomplished women in America. Conversely, Donald Trump did win the state twice, and hard as it may be to take another member of that unsavory brood may be able to win in North Carolina.
But she–and Walker–would be going up against other heavyweights. North Carolina House Speaker Tim Moore seems quite likely to run. He could have been state house speaker for another decade if he’d wanted to, but he announced his retirement just in time for the 2022 Senate race. Moore, like Tillis, would bear the burden of an unpopular legislative record, and he has ethical baggage to boot. But with the right environment, he might manage to occupy the role of “generic Republican” and take the seat despite his drawbacks.
Two more figures from state politics are eyeing the race. The more formidable of the two is former Governor Pat McCrory. The Civitas Institute found that McCrory would have led Dan Forest by a large margin had the former governor entered this year’s gubernatorial primary. Largely an artifact of name recognition, this lead nevertheless shows that McCrory fatigue is more of an elite phenomenon than anything that has taken root among grassroots voters. His erstwhile deputy, Forest, seems interested in the 2022 race as well. One has to think he just can’t give up the dream of statewide office that he’s been entertaining for almost a decade, because his gubernatorial effort was a disaster.
I have long thought that George Holding would make a strong candidate. Rock-solid conservative though he is, he comes across as mainstream in his political style and focuses on fiscal, not social, issues. He has also shown an ability to win Republican primaries. But the GOP has changed dramatically since the last time he faced a primary opponent, and his brand–“Burr with substance”–may not be to the taste of the people who will pick the nominee.
So, there are six people who credible reports have suggested may run for Burr’s seat. On Tim Boyum’s podcast, GOP consultant Paul Shumaker said that the ultimate number of competitors may reach a dozen. Notably, there is only one woman on the list–and she is tied to a president despised by female suburban voters. Nonetheless, any of these candidates would stand a chance of keeping Burr’s seat in Republican hands depending on the midterm environment.
Alexander Jones is an original contributor to PoliticsNC.
Having been followed the old 13th CD to he old 2nd to the new 13th, to the old-new 2nd before finally being delivered from him by the map of the new-new 2nd, I can safely say that if it’s “substance” you’re looking for, George Holding is unlikely to deliver it. In all his years in the House, I can’t point to a single accomplishment for him other than being reliably re-elected 4 times. His most noteworthy achievement in Congress appears to have been to become a meme by falling asleep for the cameras in a committee meeting that he was chairing.
McCrony doesn’t worry me overmuch. Not only did he become the first governor in the history of the state to be denied a second term by the voters, he accomplished this unprecedented feat in a year where statewide GOP candidates did well in the state.
Dan Forrest got spanked by a Democratic incumbent, also in a year where statewide GOP candidates made a good showing. The fact that he lost to Cooper is not so surprising, the fact that it wasn’t ever seriously in doubt in the political climate of 2020 is.
None of these three are going to be aided by a dormant period of 2 years (or in McCrony’s case 2 MORE years). Walker may not have a lot of name recognition outside his district, but it’s a problem shared by all of the other likely suspects.
The problem for the NCDP is the same one they had in this cycle; finding a candidate dynamic enough to energize the base while not alienating any of the major factions. And doing it in a midterm year, which is historically unkind to Democrats. The potential equalizer is that it will be a race for an open seat, and both sides will likely have the same kind of challenges.