By noon today, we’ll have an answer as to whether a three-judge panel of Superior Court judges accepts the maps drawn by the legislature. The panel could reject them and draw their own or they could accept alternative maps drawn by other parties. Regardless, the decision can be appealed to the Supreme Court. 

If I understand correctly, if the court accepts the maps drawn by the General Assembly, then those maps will stand for the rest of decade until the next census. If the court rejects them and implements their own, then the maps will only be used for the 2022 election cycle and be redrawn for 2024 and beyond. If that’s right, Democrats should hope that the maps the GOP submitted are accepted. 

The Congressional map that Republicans submitted offers four pretty solidly Democratic seats, six solid Republican seats, and four that are competitive. In the state House, the map enacted received overwhelming bipartisan support because it’s roughly evenly divided. The Senate map is more troublesome for Democrats than the other two, but, to quote the late Meat Loaf, two out of three ain’t bad. Besides, a lot of those districts will become more favorable to Democrats in the latter half of the decade.

Behind all the outrage over gerrymandering and the demand for even better maps, there’s a political reality. Short of something dramatic happening in the next nine months, and it certainly could, Democrats are about to have very bad election year. Joe Biden’s approval rating is about where Trump’s was at a similar time in his presidency. Inflation is voters’ biggest concern and it’s probably not going to get significantly better between now and November and it could get worse. Democrats severely underestimate the toll that COVID restrictions, many still being promoted by much of the left, have taken on people and made them wary of Democratic governance. Even as governors and others who do understand are lifting restrictions, the left flank is continuing to define the party in terms out of touch with mainstream America. Finally, the fundamentals of politics tells us that the first midterm in a president’s term is bad for the party in the White House. 

Given the political environment, there’s a far greater chance that Republicans keep control of the legislature than lose it, regardless of the maps. There’s also a very good chance that they win at least one of the Supreme Court seats that are up this cycle, giving the GOP a majority. If the court rejects the maps today and enacts its own, expect Republicans to redraw districts for 2024 that give Democrats no chance of taking control of the legislature during the rest of the decade and expect them to have a court that allows those districts to stand. 

So, cheering for new maps today might give progressives a pyrrhic victory but it will likely give Democrats devastating political losses for another decade or more. In this scenario, Republicans could start 2031 with control of the redistricting pen again, drawing themselves maps that keep them in power for at least the first few years of the next decade. So a progressive “win” today might well secure Republican-control of the legislature for a long time to come. I’d take the “loss.”