Watching the response to the coronavirus turn political is a little disheartening but it’s also very illuminating. Increasingly, those on the right side of the political spectrum are calling for opening up all businesses quickly and consequences be damned. Those on the left side want a more cautious approach that opens in stages based on declining cases and deaths—also consequences be damned. Public health officials of all stripes support those on the left while business people of all persuasions tend to support the quick opening.
I lean more toward the cautious approach but I also think that we need society to open as quickly as is relatively safe. I think the virus is every bit as dangerous as we initially thought and that without testing and tracing it will spread rapidly through society leaving a wave death in its wake. Others think its threat is overblown and we need to open up and find out.
Fortunately, North Carolina can see what happens when states try to return to business as usual without risking the lives of our citizens. Georgia and Tennessee are about to open up with few state ordered controls. If states are the laboratory of democracy, we get to watch an experiment in real time that will give us more data to make better decisions. Waiting to open until we see the impact in our neighbors is prudent governing.
The dispute between the two sides highlights ideology and values. The conservative voices are driven mainly by their faith in the free market to solve all our woes most effectively. In their view, the damage to the economy will likely cause more pain, and possibly death, than the virus itself. They are supported by more callous observers who constantly tweet about the pre-existing conditions that often accompany deaths. What they miss is that many of the conditions are treatable chronic maladies that afflict a lot of otherwise healthy people—things like hypertension, diabetes and old age—who may have lived productive lives for years more except for COVID-19.
The more cautious folks put their faith in science and medicine. While they tend to come from the liberal side of the spectrum, they include public health folks from all ideologies. One of the leading voices is Scott Gottlieb, former Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration under Trump who served as an advisor to other Republicans. He’s laid out plans for re-opening society that includes widespread testing and tracing and believes Georgia is making a mistake in opening so soon.
We live in a world of uncertainty right now. We’ve seen the coronavirus wreak havoc on places like Italy, Spain and New York City. The stay-in-place orders were a response to overwhelmed medical systems and appears to have prevented similar outcomes in other areas. Lifting those orders without a regimen of testing and tracing seems likely to rapidly increase the spread of the disease. Maybe not, though. Maybe minimal protections and common sense can keep the spread in check. Fortunately, we’ve got states like Georgia and Tennessee to serve as guinea pigs. Waiting to see what happens in those places is a very prudent move.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
We may find a trail of death following the virus in Georgia and Tennessee, but I think it’s at least equally likely that the open-at-alll-cost and damn-the-torpedoes crew will be equally flummoxed when the floodgates of commerce do not open wide and spew forth a gusher of cash. First, I have serious doubts about the willingness of most people to risk life and health to make someone else rich, but second, I can foresee an economy in which a substantial number of consumer opt not to participate. The merchant class seems to have forgotten that the downturn didn’t just impact them; it impacted their prospective clientele as well. So even those who would be inclined to go forth and consume may no longer have the means, and those who do have the means may not be keen to use them. It took years for the consumer to return to the marketplace after the 2008 recession, and this crash will dwarf that one. And what we witnessed with the tax “rebates” of the Reign of Bush the Younger was that rather than inject a mainline dose of spending into the market, the consumer elected to pay down debt or pay existing bills. The reOpeners are about to learn the hard way that you can’t grow a demand side economy with supply side… fertilizer.