National pundits are increasingly predicting that Kay Hagan is facing long odds in North Carolina. The most recent prediction comes from Nate Cohn, who apparently has taken over Nate Silver’s prediction business at the New York Times. Cohn believes that Hagan has a 57% chance of losing. He should spend some time in North Carolina.
Most of the national press base their assessments on the national mood. And right now, the national mood is pretty anti-Obama. While North Carolina’s attitude toward the president may be in sync with the rest of the country, its political environment is in a whole different place.
While mid-terms have traditionally been driven by the national narrative, state politics is dominating the Senate race. North Carolina is still undergoing the culture shock of GOP rule in a state that’s been run by Democrats for most of the past hundred years. Bowe Bergdahl and even the collapse of Iraq are background noise compared to the fights going on in the General Assembly, particularly the debate over education.
To fully understand the impact of these battles, you need to understand North Carolina’s relationship to education. It’s a point of state pride that goes back to the beginning of the republic. Every school kid is taught that the University of North Carolina was the first state university and our university system is consistently ranked among the best in the nation. During the Great Depression, the state took over the responsibility for public schools, ensuring even the poorest counties could offer their children an education. And in the midst of the Civil Rights struggle, Gov. Terry Sanford created our community college system, which also ranks among the best in the nation. Education is to North Carolinians what longhorns are to Texans.
It’s that system of education that has made North Carolina a leader in the South and one of the most desirable places to live and work in the nation. And it’s that system of education that Thom Tillis and the GOP decided to attack. They didn’t just cut funding for our public schools, universities, and community colleges. They demonized teachers and threatened to close college campuses. Instead of rising to their defense or trying to temper the most toxic rhetoric, Tillis smugly told us that this is what a conservative revolution looks like.
And it’s with this backdrop that the U.S. Senate race is unfolding. It’s why the EMILY’s List ad and the one by Senate Majority PAC are so effective. They remind us what everybody already knows: Thom Tillis cut public education.
So far, Republicans have failed to come up with a response. Instead, they attack Hagan with tired Obamacare ads and claims that she’s ineffective. So the contrast that the GOP is setting up is the ineffective incumbent who toes the party line verses the Republican leader who did real damage to education in a state where it’s revered and now wants to take his agenda to Washington.
My money is still on Kay Hagan.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
uhhm, mr dennisberman, it seems you don’t know what in the world you are arrogantly yammering about.
“Poll shows US Sen. Kay Hagan with slight edge over NC House Speaker Thom Tillis”
http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/06/17/3944023/poll-shows-hagan-with-slight-lead.html
PPP polls are to Dems what my mother’s opinion of me is to… me. In other words, predictably a bit favorable. And favorable coverage by N-O for Hagan is hardly unbiased.
MIlls, whatever bubble you’re in, you need to get out more. Higher education, like UNC, and UNCW are mired in controversy after controversy, athletic grade giving, and tenure denying, as two small examples. Based on your screed, the amount of things you do not comprehend about the ‘mood’ in NC would fill volumes. The real truths that you won’t write about are the incredibly high salaries paid to so-so instructors, professors, and administrators, and the jacking up of tuition creating a society of debt ridden college graduates with no where to work. You go ahead and keep repeating the Maddow like mantras, and those in the bubble with you will all nod knowingly, come election day, you’ll have a plate of crow, or three to enjoy.
Dennis – if these issues exist at the higher ed level, defunding all education – K-12 + higher ed – is not the answer. NCGOP has trashed teachers, ignored the INVESTMENT that education can be, and defunded all aspects of education in NC.
What is most surprising, the “market-focused” conservatives fail to recognize that being close to last in the market of teacher salaries is a terrible thing. I guess they look to Walmart and see the future – low wage, no benefit class of teachers doing the bulk of the work. It’s a terrible way to do business – and an even worse way to educate the youth of this state.
Seriously? Like the post-Watergate election was all about the environment or something for the GOP? Like WhatsHerNameTheLastGov was not elected due to gay marriage? Seriously
Seriously, when was the last time a Senate election was about “education”?
But you gotta give the writers here credit, they’re trying to keep the ship from sinking straight out of the docks.
Unless they find the other guy in bed with a live boy or a dead girl, this one is over.
Nice post. There are few things more damning than being the person who led the assault on public education on every front.