With in-person early vote ending on Saturday, I continue my obsession with turnout numbers. I also continue to put my faith in people who are undesignated race and gender to carry Democrats across the line. Voters who have undesignated race make up almost ten percent of the electorate so far. They are overwhelmingly younger voters and a solid plurality, 44%, is registered unaffiliated. 

With people identifying as undesignated race removed, the electorate looks much more like previous elections. When Michael Bitzer divided the early voters by gender, Black women made up 23% of their cohort and Black men made up 21% of their cohort, mimicking their early vote percentage in 2016.  White voters, too, make up a larger percentage when undesignated voters are omitted reflecting their 2016 early vote turnout. Those folks who don’t identify race will have a huge impact on the final electorate.

Compared to 2016, younger voters are turning out in droves. Back then, the voters under 40 years old made up about 21% of the electorate. They make up 36% of the early vote so far. Most polls show this demographic heavily favoring Democrats. 

The unprecedented number of early voters makes predictions difficult. Looking back to 2016, though, we can see a few patterns. When Trump won North Carolina by three points, white voters and Republican surged. More than 75% of registered Republicans voted compared to 68.5% of Democrats and 63% of Unaffiliated voters. GOP turnout was about three percent higher than 2012. 

White voters, especially older ones, surged in 2016. Almost 79% of white voters over 65 years old voted and 77% of those 41-65 showed up. It’s hard to see those percentages increasing significantly this year, but with younger voters surging, the GOP will need them to stay similarly high.

So far this year, 64% of both Republicans and Democrats have voted while 57% of unaffiliated voters have already voted. Democrats will certainly exceed the 68.5% that voted four years ago. The unaffiliated voters will, too. Republicans may well exceed their 75% since they only need about 250,000 voters to show up on election day to achieve that goal. Democrats will need a much larger turnout of almost 290,000 election day voters to keep pace with the GOP’s 2016 turnout.

While polls are not open until tomorrow, early voting is not over. Mail-in ballots continue to come in at a steady clip and Democrats are outpacing Republicans by more than 2-1, 45% to 20%. Unaffiliated voters make up about a third of the mail in ballots. Some mail-in ballots may not have been processed yet and others are likely stuck in the postal service so turnout may actually be just slightly higher and slightly more favorable to Democrats. 

Both groups of partisans are surging right now. Republicans are voting in larger numbers early than they have in the past and Democrats will certainly blow past their low turnout numbers from 2016. The unaffiliated voters and those who chose not to identify their race continue to provide the suspense in the election.

The unaffiliated voters are younger and whiter than the electorate as a whole but they are significantly less white than in 2016. Back then, 78% of unaffiliated early voters identified as white. This year, only 70% do. In addition, a larger percentage, 14%, does not identify by race. Unaffiliated voters made up 26% of the early vote in 2016 and make up 30% this year.

Three factors are left to determine the outcome. Who shows up tomorrow (i.e., can Democrats keep pace with Republicans?) and how undesignated and unaffiliated voters break this year. They are the known unknowns.