Lessons from Alabama for purple states in 2018

by | Dec 15, 2017 | Editor's Blog, North Carolina, Politics | 1 comment

The Doug Jones victory over Roy Moore gave an added boost to an already motivated Democratic base. It showed that Democrats can actually win in Red States. While they got close in a number of special elections in Republican Congressional districts, they’ve come up short until now. Democrats now see a way to victory.

The win offers a number of lessons for Democrats in purple states like North Carolina. The first is that candidates matter. Doug Jones was a good candidate who fit the state. I worried earlier that he hadn’t made the case that he was a different kind of Democrat who was an acceptable alternative, even if not a perfect one, for conservatives who couldn’t stomach Roy Moore.  Many of those people voted for Donald Trump despite similar accusations of sexual assault because they didn’t consider Hillary Clinton an acceptable choice. Jones clearly made the case that he is better for Alabama, not just that Moore is unacceptable.

Jones also had a story that gave him a deep connection to the African-American community. He prosecuted Klansmen in the 1990s who killed four little black girls in the 1960s. They repaid his service by turning out in droves. White Democrats in North Carolina should understand that they need to build meaningful relationships in the African-American community and not just expect black voters to show up on Election Day.

The election also underscores the necessity of building a bigger tent. While Jones garnered about half the votes in the state, he only won one out of seven Congressional districts. Progressives blamed it on gerrymandering, but that’s not going to change the political reality until the courts rule otherwise. For the time being, they should be looking for candidates who can compete in more conservative districts. High turnout among the base might be great for statewide candidates but it will only run up margins in legislative and Congressional districts already held by Democrats unless the party recruits candidates who are acceptable alternatives for conservative-leaning independents.

In North Carolina, Republicans control 10 of 13 Congressional districts despite only winning slightly more than half of the vote in 2016. Recruitment this year is strong and Democrats may do very well here in 2018. If so, it will be because the candidates reflect the district, not the other way around.

The national party kept a very low profile in the race. While the DSCC and other groups certainly spent money in Alabama, they did it quietly and late. The race felt like an Alabama brawl, not just a national spectacle. The same can be said for the Virginia races last month.

Clearly, the political environment and Moore’s flaws gave Jones a big advantage. Had the president been more popular or the GOP Congress more effective, the result might have been different. Still, the Jones victory gives Democrats a road map for victory in conservative leaning states in a year like 2018. They should recruit strong candidates with broad appeal. They should work hard to build relationships with the base. And they should make sure that voters perceive the race as about them, not about political fights in Washington.

1 Comment

  1. David

    I’m not sure I see the hope and the road map from a Democratic victory in Alabama….. The conditions for Jones to eek out a 1% victory were that he was very visible as a prosecutor of the KKK and received 96% of the black vote while Moore was accused of being a pedophile….. I see that race as lining up as the perfect storm for the Democrats…. and hoping for perfect storms is probably not going to win many elections…..

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