A recent article in the Washington Post notes that in about 20 years, 70% of the population will live in just 15 states. Half the population will live in eight. North Carolina is one of those eight states.
When our country reaches that point, about 30% of the people will elect 70% of our Senators. Those 30% of the people will be older, whiter and probably much more conservative than the nation as a whole. The population shift will give the larger states a far greater number of Congressional seats. However, the shift in the House will be slower than the one in the Senate since reapportionment happens only every ten years and Senate elections happen every six. (In North Carolina, we gained one seat after the 2000 census and will gain at least one more after the 2020 census.)
Our country and our government will get more divided over time. A minority of the people will control one chamber of Congress while a majority will control the other. The electoral college will follow the population so the larger states will have a greater impact on choosing the presidency.
With rising population and more demands for infrastructure like transportation and schools, the larger states will continue to become more liberal. We can already see the trend in states like Georgia and Texas that just a few years ago looked permanently red. Democrats may not win either state this year, but their electoral power will increase over the next decade.
The larger states will likely have new-found respect for federalism despite the fact that many of them will be Democratic. They will want more power to enact their own policies without interference from a federal government mired in gridlock and heavily influenced by rural conservatives in the Senate. The shift will reflect the current political re-alignment that’s happening across the country.
Trump’s shifting the Court to the right may prove permanent. The more conservative Senate could block liberal nominees, putting even more pressure on liberals to win the presidency. Ironically, the more conservative justices might empower the larger states with decisions that favor states’ rights over the federal government.
Inside our state, North Carolina will mirror the nation as a whole. Our urban areas will expand while our rural areas become older, whiter and more conservative. Fortunately, our constitution doesn’t give each county a senator or two. Both legislative chambers have proportional representation. The shift of power to the urban population centers helps explain the GOP’s push to retain power through limiting access to the polls and gerrymandering. However, the tactics will delay, not prevent, the change that’s coming.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
U.S. demographic shifts will probably balance out politically. Large states like Texas and Florida will continue to gain representation and lean conservative. Liberal-dominated big states like Illinois, New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania will continue to lose seats due to proportional representation.
North Carolina will become a swing state, but the Democrats will unable to dominate due to a large independent swing vote. While it’s true that the big city-dominated metropolitan counties like Mecklenburg, Wake, Durham, Guilford, Forsyth, Cumberland and Buncombe will continue to trend liberal, the outer metro counties like Johnston, Harnett, Brunswick, Union, Gaston, Cabarrus, Iredell, Davidson and Henderson are becoming GOP strongholds.
Democrats will gain representation in growing states like Colorado, Virginia, Oregon, Washington and perhaps Nevada, but conservatives will hold sway in growing states like South Carolina, Georgia and Utah. And states losing population like Ohio, West Virginia, Wisconsin and perhaps Kentucky could become even more favorable for conservative Republicans. So be careful what you wish for.
Even today, if one considers those square-shaped states in the Rocky Mountain regions, they have a combined population one tenth that of California yet have four times as many senators. (Co, Mt,Wy, Id)
The size of the House of Representatives needs to be increased. The House is supposed to reflect the will of the people, but the size of the districts is now too large – over 700,000 people. There is historical precedent as well. The size of the House was regularly increased after each census, until 1911. Think about that – the size hasn’t changed in over 100 years! New Mexico, Arizona, Alaska and Hawaii weren’t states at that time, and women, African-Americans, and American Indians couldn’t vote in most states. After 2020, if the House remains at 435 members, some states will lose representation even though their populations have increased. In this day and age, there is no excuse for this. We should at least correct the worst errors, such as giving DC a full voting member. This would also affect the Electoral College, since votes are based on the number of Congressional districts. California is grossly under-represented in the House. It is undemocratic that a small minority of voters gets to have such influence.
So, we can expect more efforts by Republicans in the General Assembly to further restrict and limit voting rights and short-change voter participation. The GOP believes they can stop the demographic trends which will make this state more Democratic. This, of course, is a short-term strategy to keep the current GOP legislative leaders in office for a few more years, but the long-term consequences will be to turn North Carolina blue.