Democratic turnout in primaries continued to surge last night. In New York, voters turned out in much greater numbers than they have in previous midterms. Twice as many voted yesterday than they did four years ago.
In North Carolina, early absentee ballot requests indicate enthusiasm for Democrats. According to Gerry Cohen, more than 12,000 absentee ballots have been requested, mostly from voters in the military and overseas. Of those 46% are Democrats, 30% are unaffiliated and 24% are Republican. Mail-in absentee ballots traditionally have favored Republicans and with more than seven weeks to go they still might. However, at this point, Democrats are showing unusual motivation to vote.
According to Dr. Michael Bitzer, North Carolina just topped 7 million voters. Of those, 38% registered as Democrats, 30% as Republicans, 31% as unaffiliated and less than 1% as a third party like Libertarian.
In 2010 and 2014, over half of registered Republicans voted as opposed to 44% and 46%, respectively, for Democrats. Unaffiliated voters voted at much lower levels. In 2006, the last Blue Moon, Democrats and Republicans both voted at 40% and Democrats had a very good year. If Democrats keep pace with Republicans in turnout, 2018 will be a very good year for Democrats in North Carolina.
Poll after poll indicates that both parties are consolidating their bases. In other words, not many partisans are up for grabs anymore. The Reagan Democrats are going extinct. The main swing voters are unaffiliated voters. This year, they appear to be breaking for Democrats.
That said, Democrats are increasingly concentrated in urban areas. So are unaffiliated voters. We might see a big turnout boost margins for Democrats in urban/suburban districts while having relatively little effect on rural ones. That’s where gerrymandering makes up the GOP seawall.
Polling this midterm could be difficult. Likely voter screens are built primarily from vote history. In 2010 and 2014, the last two midterms, Democrats essentially sat out the elections. Screens that reflect the turnouts from those two elections might be under-representing Democrats and/or Democratic-leaning unaffiliated voters. For instance, the Civitas poll of the 2ndCongressional District showed Republicans making up two percent more of the electorate than Democrats, even though Democrats have about 1% advantage in registration. The screen probably represents expected turnout in a normal election year well, but doesn’t pick up the enthusiasm that might be brewing.
If Democrats vote at the same level as Republicans and unaffiliated voters break evenly, Democrats will have good night on November 6. If Democratic turnout exceeds Republican turnout and unaffiliated voters break heavily for them, they could have a great night.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
In the last couple of years, some of Trump’s most critical opponents have been Republicans. Steve Schmidt best known for his strategic roles on Republican political campaigns including those of President George W. Bush, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Arizona Senator John McCain have labeled Trump an idiot and liar. Members of Trump’s staff who have not been indicted and or convicted of criminal activity have called him a moron.
The only Republican’s not criticizing Trump’s shenanigans are those still left in congress. They refuse, with some exceptions, to question the activities of Trump and or members of his crime family. These are our elected representatives.
The fact Trump has spent over 16 million taxpayer dollars at his privately-owned clubs and resorts goes unaddressed. Trump consistently playing the role of useful idiot to Russian interests is ignored.
Several of Trump’s former campaign staff convicted of felonious activities, his former attorney naming him as an UN-indicted co-conspirator in violating US Election Laws, should attract congressional attention.
Perhaps, it is time Republicans, not sitting in congress, making 172 grand a year, plus government paid health care vote these clowns out and replace them with them with representatives who believe the well-being of this country and it’s people are more important than party.