In North Carolina, races in the 9th and 13th Congressional districts have gotten most of the attention. Several prognosticators have called NC-09 a toss-up after Republican incumbent Robert Pittenger lost his primary to Mark Harris. Harris starts the race more than a million dollars behind Democrat Dan McCready. In NC-13, freshman incumbent Republican Ted Budd has failed to mount much of a campaign and is largely unknown in the district. His challenger, Kathy Manning, is running an aggressive campaign and has banked more than a million dollars in the district that is seen, in terms of numbers, as the most competitive in the state. Both candidates fit their district.
One district that’s been overlooked but that has caught the attention of Washington handicappers is NC-08, the district I ran in two years ago. Former Aberdeen Mayor Frank McNeill captured the nomination in the Democratic primary two weeks ago and impressed prognosticators with a healthy first quarter primary haul of $250,000. Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the district from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. The Cook Political Report did the same.
The district has caught the eye of Washington because McNeill is raising serious money and because he fits the district. NC-08 is a gerrymandered district that stretches more than 100 miles from Fayetteville to Cabarrus County, just north of Charlotte and includes some or all of seven counties. McNeill’s family is from Moore County where they own a gas and oil distribution company. They’re well respected with deep roots. McNeill may be able to steal votes in Moore County that other candidates couldn’t.
McNeill faces incumbent Republican Richard Hudson. Hudson is a strong candidate but he’s not from the district. He’s from Washington, DC. Before he ran for Congress in the newly gerrymandered district in 2012, he was working on Capitol Hill in Congressional offices and registered to vote in Virginia. His wife, Renee, also worked in Congressional offices both prior to and after marrying Hudson. They met while working in Washington and she has no real ties to North Carolina. Today, she works in the White House as Chief of Staff for Trump advisor Kellyanne Conway. To use Trump’s language, they’re swamp creatures.
Winning the district comes down to McNeill winning the eastern part of the district by a larger margin than he loses the western part. With his deep roots in Moore County, he has a chance of pulling that off. He’ll need a big turnout in Cumberland and Hoke Counties. Fortunately, he shares Cumberland with McCready so there should be resources for a substantial ground campaign. McNeill will need to show that he can continue to bank money to stay on the radar screen but he’s in a position to strike if the opportunity arises.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
I know no one gives Dems a chance in NC-11, but there are a lot of us out here in Western NC who really want to get rid of Mark Meadows.
Excellent analysis. I agree that McNeill is a strong candidate who will push Hudson hard in a district that could flip with high Democratic turn out.