Watching the Republican US Senate primary here in North Carolina sure makes me hope Cheri Beasley wins in November. Former Governor Pat McCrory is flailing, as incompetent and insincere as ever. Congressman Ted Budd is in the pocket of Donald Trump and allying himself with the grifter-wing of the GOP. Poor Mark Walker can’t seem to get anyone to take his campaign seriously despite all his pandering. It’s a rogue’s gallery that makes me sad for our state and nation. 

Last night, Ted Budd didn’t show up for the Republican primary debate. Pat McCrory’s twitter account has a panicked tone this morning, lobbing insults and accusations at Budd. He’s accusing Budd of being scared to debate him. He accused Budd of hiding from the voters. He’s accusing Budd of abandoning the Ukrainians.  

In reality, Budd isn’t showing up because he’s taken the lead in the race and there’s no upside to debating his opponents. The only people watching primary debates are people working on one of the campaigns. Most people get their information about what happened from news reports. So, while nobody wins elections based on their debate performance, they can certainly lose elections because of a bad night. 

The late Senator Kay Hagan may have lost her Senate because of a gaffe in the moments after winning a debate against then-NC House Speaker Thom Tillis. Hagan had a good night on the stage, outperforming Tillis and sitting on a narrow lead in the polls. Then, while fielding questions after the debate, she told a reporter she had missed a Foreign Affairs Committee meeting to attend a fundraiser. With ISIS and Ebola dominating the headlines, that’s all most people learned about the debate. The Tillis campaign turned her gaffe into a liability and a few weeks later defeated Hagan by the narrowest of margins. 

Budd knows the trajectory of the campaign favors him. After trailing all year, he’s got the momentum. As voters tune in to the election, a year’s worth of negative ads are taking a toll on McCrory. A more talented politician with a better track record might be able to overcome Budd’s advantage, but McCrory is not that person. He’s a hapless guy, thin on accomplishments and smarts, who always looks like he’s running for student body president instead of higher office. 

Mark Walker will always be an also-ran. For some reason, the Republican establishment has never liked him. He spent much of last year pandering to Donald Trump only to be rejected when the former president endorsed Budd. The Republicans who would seem a natural fit for him, like the right-to-life crowd, chose Budd. Walker has garnered few high-profile endorsements and his campaign has floundered from the beginning, despite being in the race the longest.

I suspect Budd will win the nomination, defeating not just McCrory, but ending the Reagan Revolution in North Carolina. He will be a harbinger for things to come. Mark Robinson will likely be the GOP nominee for governor in four years, completing the Trumpist takeover of the GOP here. Sure, Phil Berger and Tim Moore might control the legislature for the foreseeable future, but the populists are ascendant in statewide contests. The question is whether or not they can appeal the middle in statewide contests to win in the general elections.