The number that is Renee Ellmers’ favorite is also the number that keeps insurgent conservatives up at night. That number is 40.

Ellmers will surely receive a primary challenge this cycle, and it will be a candidate of higher caliber than Frank Roche, whose cash-strapped campaign still managed to keep her short of 60% of the vote last May. In the end, conservatives better hope they can coalesce behind one candidate, as Ellmers’ chances of reelection would be greatly enhanced with multiple primary challengers. All she needs is 40%.

Republican strategist Paul Shumaker weighed in on a potential challenge to Ellmers, noting that North Carolina is a “very, very expensive” state to play in and Ellmers’ district particularly so, as it contains the pricey Raleigh media market. Any challenger to the congresswoman will probably have to overcome a large financial deficit. Perhaps the closest parallel to Ellmers’ situation is the situation faced by Thom Tillis in the GOP primary last year. Tillis had a monetary advantage while the conservative vote was split between Greg Brannon, Mark Harris, and Heather Grant. It was the old ‘divide and conquer’ strategy. In the end, Tillis came out of the primary with less than majority support among GOP voters. But he didn’t need it. He had enough resources to clear the 40% hump and that was what mattered.

There are a few differences, though. Unlike Tillis, Ellmers is an incumbent. That’s usually an advantage but not when the Tea Party has you in their sights. Finally, I think Ellmers’ situation is far more precarious than Tillis’s would have been in a runoff situation. In a runoff against Brannon, I think Tillis would have pulled out a win – but it would have been an ugly affair and Tillis probably would not be a U.S. Senator today. Like Tillis, Ellmers absolutely has to avoid a runoff, because those voting in a runoff are mainly going to be GOP activist types – the true believers. Her campaign simply can’t allow the race to go to a second round.

The ideal situation for Ellmers, then, is a divided Tea Party vote, which could allow her to advance to the general election with only a plurality. Ironically, the more vulnerable Ellmers is perceived, the more likely that multiple conservative challengers will enter the fray. Besides Jim Duncan, who appears to be ready to launch a campaign after declining to run last cycle, other potential challengers include Frank Roche, who Ellmers defeated last May, and Robert Holding, brother of George Holding who made noise about running against Ellmers last time around but ended up not filing. If any of these folks decide to throw their hat in, the Right’s ambitions of unseating the incumbent might be thwarted yet again. All she needs is to come in first – with 40%.

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.