United States Senate races are heavily determined by the national political environment. In a good year for Democrats, any nominee will have a solid chance of becoming the first member of the NC Donkey Party to win a U.S. Senate race since Kay Hagan in 2008. A good year for Republicans, which does not seem unlikely, will make the race much tougher going. Another factor, though, could mitigate the challenge of running in a Democratic president’s first midterm year: candidate quality.

Think back to 1998. The midterms were being held in the wake of Bill Clinton’s impeachment and the backlash to it among Democratic base voters. But contrary to how the year is remembered, electoral results were more a mixed bag than a sweeping Democratic victory. When the dust settled, Democrats had gained a couple of seats in the Senate and tread water in the House. That was a significant improvement over the typical “six year itch,” but it was not a Democratic wave year. Nevertheless, John Edwards became the only North Carolina Democrat to win a Senate race in the 1990s.

Edwards won the election in large part on candidate quality. Not yet the disgraced adulterer he would become after fame destroyed his judgment, the Raleigh trial lawyer came across as young and energetic, the embodiment of North Carolina’s booming suburbs. One Democratic activist called him “dynamite.” On the Republican side was Senator Lauch Faircloth, an overweight 64-year-old hog farmer with a bad attitude who claimed to be so conservative he called Jesse Helms the state’s “liberal” senator. The contrast between the forty-something suburbanite with fresh energy and an aging agriculturalist was perfect, and Edwards won.

It’s been over 20 years since the last North Carolina U.S. Senate election turned on candidate quality, but history could repeat itself next year. Both of the Democrats’ major candidates have attractive profiles for modern North Carolina. Cheri Beasley, the frontrunner, is the first African American woman to serve as Chief Justice of the NC Supreme Court and has the bearing and persona of a distinguished jurist. Her main opponent, Jeff Jackson, an underdog but still very much viable, has a bit of Millennial energy about him. He’d appeal to young voters and professionals; the question is whether he can inspire Black turnout. Jackson and Beasley would both match up well against their most likely Republican opponents.

The leading Republicans may not be as lackluster as Faircloth, but they still leave much to be desired. For once, Donald Trump got something right in noting that Pat McCrory is a two-time loser whose values, such as they are, do not comport with the raging populism of MAGA nation. Trump’s preferred horse Ted Budd is a gun store owner, a flamboyant Trumper, and a person who used monster trucks to symbolize his determination to crush the liberal agenda. Neither of these men offer an especially compelling profile to the suburban and exurban voters who increasingly hold sway in North Carolina elections. (Note that despite impressions of suburban strength on McCrory’s part, he got destroyed in Wake and Mecklenburg counties the last time he was on the ballot.)

Candidate quality divergence could allow a Democrat, whether it is Beasley or Jackson, to compete even in a difficult year for their party. In a Republican wave year, it still might not be enough to overcome national forces. But with the economy beginning to roar and the COVID pandemic increasingly in the rear-view mirror, a strong Democratic nominee could provide a buffer against political dynamics that are otherwise difficult to overcome.