Evidence that the GOP is hitting panic mode in North Carolina came in the form of a leaked email from Republican House Caucus director Matt Bales. Before the votes were completely counted in Pennsylvania, Bales shot off a warning to members of the GOP caucus:
“Last night, there was a special election in Pennsylvania. President Donald Trump won the district in the 2016 Presidential Election by 20 percentage points. However, as of this morning, the Republican trails by 641 votes with only absentee ballots outstanding.
“The outcome is yet another example of the Democratic base being fired up and the Republicans not turning out their voters. The momentum on the Democratic side is real. Our fate will be determined by how hard we work and the effort we put into defending our majority and supermajority in the next six months.
“Based on last night’s results, here is the 2019 makeup of the NC General Assembly.
Democrat Seats = 74
Republican Seats = 46”
By Bales reckoning, control of the house would almost be a mirror-opposite of what it is today in terms of the partisan divide. Democrats would hold a veto-proof majority ahead of the 2020 elections which will determine which party draws districts for the next decade. He listed 23 seats he called “safer” that would have lost if the 19 point swing that happened in PA-18 happened here.
The memo tells us that Republicans recognize the tough political environment they’re facing and they aren’t taking it lightly. Bales urges the vulnerable caucus members to “Raise money. Then raise more money.” That’s clearly the right advice but it’s also not enough.
Pennsylvania showed that the Republican rank-and-file has little enthusiasm for Trump and is probably disappointed with the GOP performance in Congress. After trying to make the race about the tax cut, Republicans found voters weren’t buying it. Republicans claim that Trump’s visit to the district helped but clearly his mere presence on the political scene hurt far more.
No amount of money will suppress the Democrats’ urge to get rid of Republicans in office. They are angry at Trump, protective of Obama’s accomplishments and furious at GOP’s inaction on guns and their budget busting tax cut for the wealthy. No amount of negative campaigning will keep Democrats and progressives out of the ballot box in November.
Republicans face another dilemma. They represent the part of the state that hasn’t recovered from the Great Recession and yet they’ve controlled the legislature since 2011 and now have all of Congress and the White House. They’ll have difficulty taking credit or blaming Democrats.
Bales’ memo shows that professional Republicans are gearing up for an extremely tough political environment this fall. They’ll try to raise money to drive a message and sully Democrats. They’ll have a tough time competing for attention with the attention-grabbing President of the United States.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Republicans are becoming aware that they are responsible for a festering canker blossom in the White House who struts about like the monarch of morons brandishing his double-edged scepter of ignorance and hatred.
He runs a government of 2.8 million civil servants from a locked powder room in the White House in the wee hours. He directs the world’s most powerful nation with his tiny thumbs. His ignorance is profound as is his criminality. His cowardice is most on display when he melts before his BBF Vladimir. (“Do you think Putin will be going to The Miss Universe pageant in November in Moscow,” Trump tweeted on June 18, 2013. “If so, will he become my new best friend?) Like a middle-school girl drawing hearts on her notebook, Donald pines for approval from his strong man.
He sells the nation down the river every time his bone spurs bring him to his knees before the great Russia dictator. Because he doesn’t read anything, he doesn’t know that Putin runs a country a fraction the size and importance of this one. But love is blind. War crimes make him misty.
The United States is a great country. It has been a great country for centuries. We can hope that this hiatus from our rightful place on the world stage and our long history of steady leadership will be temporary. The world is waiting for our people and this country to come to our senses. We made a HUGE mistake in November 2016. The country can begin to heal once we sent Cadet Bone Spurs limping down the road toward the ash heap of history. He is an insult to everything American, a traitor to our nation and a remarkable con man, maybe the worlds’ greatest crook. But he is not a president. He knows it. Like all crooks, he knows his days are numbered. He is filling his suitcase with stolen money and waiting for his chance to give us the slip. He will never make it through the impeachment. He’ll slip out the back door.
Ridding the nation of all things Donald and all of his collaborators will Make American Great Again. There should be one more requirement in the Constitution in order to run for president. The candidate must be on America’s side. We never thought we would have to require that.
Well said. The Parkland students and what they have unleashed give me hope again. Idiocy and strutting do not impress them and they are young enough to insist on their reality.
glad to hear someone actually speaking like a true American again. If we make it to the next Presidential election without some other Putin orchestrated coup attempt here, since the Donald is so obviously just a robot for Russia, and Putin has had him in his pocket since the beginning, I would suggest we make a list of all those who have similarly lied, distorted, and supported his un-American agenda, and make sure they are all booted out ,too
It would be best if the NC Democrats assumed nothing in the upcoming elections. The memo with those dire statistical outcomes is merely math. Reality on the ground is always different, sometimes shockingly so. It is also a long time before we actually vote — well, long in political time. If anyone wants to make a $10 bet on the NC Dems winning a veto proof majority, I will gladly take the opposite side and donate the winnings to the food pantry.
Norma, I agree. I amwatching the dems self destruct as the party goes haring off after their very own extremist, Mr. “a pony in every yard” Bernie Sabders. We voters yearn for a moderate candidate to vote for, and it would be nice if he were honest, not a flim flam man. IMHO, the rabid reptiles problem is trying to aell the general population on policies that arwe not in their brst interest, likr trickle down economics. We really aren’t that stupid.
yes, thank god there’s no “flim flam man” in the WH now. whew