There’s been a lot of talk lately about the vast growth in voters who don’t belong to any party. In North Carolina, can register as Unaffiliated. And thanks to the state’s meticulous voter registration records, we can see just how large this group has gotten. Just over 27% of voters here are Unaffiliated. In a few years, there will probably be more Unaffiliated voters than there are Republicans. Appealing to these independent voters, then, is vital to the future of both parties.
But it would be a mistake to think that these unaffiliated types are purely nonpartisan or even swing voters. Most of them have very clear partisan leanings, and numerous studies of “independent” voters have confirmed this. Like independent voters nationwide, they tend to be more conservative than liberal (Mitt Romney won independents in 2012 but lost because there were too many Democrats in the electorate).
Interestingly, in North Carolina independent voters tend to reflect the partisan leanings of the communities in which they live. Therefore, an “unaffiliated” voter in Chapel Hill is much more likely to be a liberal than a conservative, and the opposite is true for an unaffiliated voter in somewhere like Union or Brunswick County.
Unaffiliated voters in North Carolina are disproportionately male, skew younger, and are also disproportionately white. The top ten counties with the highest proportion of unaffiliated voters are the following:
1. Currituck (39.63%)
2. Watauga (38.46%)
3. Henderson (37.03%)
4. Transylvania (35.82%)
5. Dare (35.11%)
6. Jackson (34.00%)
7. Orange (33.89%)
8. Polk (33.87%)
9. Camden (33.55%)
10. Buncombe (33.17%)
What do all these counties have in common? All of them have a very high percentage of transplants from other states. Currituck is actually the most transplant-heavy (by percentage) county in the state. There’s probably a very high correlation between the percentage of transplants and the percentage of unaffiliated voters in each county. The bottom ten are all Black Belt counties with a high percentage of native-born North Carolinians: Martin, Vance, Sampson, Washington, Warren, Bertie, Northampton, Anson, Hertford, and Edgecombe, which has only 10.26% of voters registered as Unaffiliated, the lowest percentage in the entire state.
And the ten counties which added the greatest number of unaffiliated voters since November 6, 2012, as a percentage of total registration:
1. Brunswick (+2.86%)
2. Union (+2.82%)
3. Swain (+2.80%)
4. Transylvania (+2.65%)
5. Halifax (+2.62%)
6. Madison (+2.39%)
7. Johnston (+2.16%)
8. Cabarrus (+2.08%)
9. Davie (+2.04%)
10. Iredell (+1.96%)
Most of these are rural or exurban counties. From the looks of it, the growth in the unaffiliated proportion of the electorate in those areas is coming from retirees moving in from out of state. I would guess that they tend toward the conservative side. This is not surprising: voters registering in off-years tend to be older, whiter, and more conservative than average, and the locations of the growth in unaffiliated voters in this time period should reflect that.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Always been indie: going on 15 years. NOT old, white, retired, male. Just use your own brain and vote, forget the labels.
I’ve been a registered Democrat (b/c forever that’s how you were “supposed: to vote here) for 30 yrs. I just mailed my form today to change my party to Unaffiliated. I am extremely conservative on some levels and am for less government; but I also have some leanings towards the libertarian causes so I decided to make this change as to not box myself in this stupid county of all Democraps who vote straight party tickets when they don’t know their @$$ from a hole in the ground.
To each there own, I guess. Was a Dem for 20 years, then a Republican for a long while, now Unaffiliated. Left the GOP when its conservatives took over and started to show themselves as deniers, obstructionists, and bigots, as well as uncaring about anyone that didn’t look, believe, live, pray, marry, or otherwise act like they did.
Thank you. Well said. I am retired and have been a voting Republican for 50 years. I have never missed voting, even with a broken ankle, I voted on crutches. However, I can not longer be part of the Republican or Democratic parties. I am conservative and will vote Republican, but if more people change to Independent, neither party can count their chickens before they hatch, making both parties work to get the votes. Maybe it will over time make the established politicians and new comers realize that we are mad as H–l and we’re not going to keep putting up with the corruption on BOTH sides.
I wouldn’t for any these people because they are all liars and hypocrites, They stand for nothing
The demopublicans don’t mind too much if you refuse to be one of them. As long as you keep voting for them. Write in an unaffiliated such as yourself in a random race and the demopublicans will officially discard it, more likely than not.
to even given them credit makes me sick poly means many tics are blood sucking parasites . there is no winner in my eyes i personally find it tragic
I’m retired, but from NC and I’m registered unaffiliated. I can’t be politically contained within a party box.
Moved from Fl and have been voting since 1972, politics in general is driving me from both parties, have been independent since 1990!
If you hate women, hate education, hate the truth and hate freedom vote contard.
I’ve had friends here in Union tell me they registered unaffilated so they could vote in the Republican primary as there are seldom Democrats running for local office. My question is, WHY? A Republican is a Republican any way you cut it. And when you “vote for the man/woman” you get the party. And that party’s returning our state to Rip Van Winkle status.
“Unaffiliated voters in North Carolina are disproportionately male, skew younger, and are also disproportionately white.”
And…
“From the looks of it, the growth in the unaffiliated proportion of the electorate in those areas is coming from retirees moving in from out of state. I would guess that they tend toward the conservative side.”
??? You really make no sense. Young white men rarely equals “retirees from out of state.” And “guessing” they tend toward the conservative makes me wonder if this is simply wishful thinking. Where’s the data? SURELY there is data!
“both parties”
FYI the number that comes after 2 is 3.
I’m unaffiliated, an immigrant to NC from a northern state in 2006, a retiree now (after working 7 years at NCSU). And I know so many unaffiliateds who have similar storylines as mine, and who would never vote for a GOP candidate in fall elections in NC, given what has transpired here since 2010 and especially how NC teachers and poorer citizens have been treated.
So, they were really thriving for the 150 years prior to the Republicans gaining the majority in 2010, right? You’re a shill for the Democrat party and can’t see the overall BS from both sides of the political aisle beyond that big D on your voter registration card. Try looking at our government from an unbiased point of view and you’ll see a totally different picture. And how about learn a little about our state’s history before passing judgement? That’s a big problem with transplants like you. Your policies fail where you come from and you end up bringing your bad ideas down here. I-95 does run both directions. Don’t let it stop you from heading back to your land of plenty.
There is no “big D” on my registration card, Sparky. Was a Republican and then went to Unaffiliated when the NCGOP went rogue.
And thank you for that warm reception to, and kinds words about, my 9-year-old NC re-location! Essentially calling me a shill, biased, ignorant, having a “problem” as a transplant, having bad ideas, and urging me to leave the state shows such wonderful Southern hospitality! Much appreciated!
And were I you, I’d be carefully about judging what state’s policies are the real “failures.” Where I used to live has a bigger budget surplus and lower unemployment than NC, and pays its medical providers on time for Medicaid (unlike NC), and has not left some 400,000 of it near-poor uncovered by Medicaid. And it’s also NOT a laughing stock across the country (like NC is) for policies/proposals on sea level rise, possum drops, creating a state religion, disenfranchising its voters, giving public magistrates the right to discriminate, keeping teacher pay near rock bottom nationally, driving away film industry benefits, drawing extremely gerrymandered districts, and a host of other warped actions.
Thank You FOR That !
I’m unaffiliated so that during the primary I can vote for the least repellent offering on the Repub ballot. I’ve been registered to vote since 1986, have voted in every election, and I’ve never voted *for* anyone in the primary. Wait, I take that back– this year my vote for Peter Asciutto for NC-67 was actually an affirmative vote for him and not only a vote against Justin Burr; that’s the only one, ever.
How you ever came up with that the conclusion that “the unaffiliated proportion of the electorate in those areas is coming from retirees moving in from out of state. I would guess that they tend toward the conservative side” is beyond me. I’d “guess” that retirees are mostly coming from more northern states, and would be less attuned to the regressive and close-minded vision and policies held by NCGOPers.