By this time in 2013, North Carolina was in full-tilt campaign mode. Third-party groups were running ads for and against both Kay Hagan and Thom Tillis. We knew we were in for a long ride.
This year? Nothing. I think a pro-McCrory group may have run some warm and fuzzy ads in an attempt to get his numbers out of the basement, but we haven’t seen the sustained television buys that began in October 2013, more than a year before the election. With the most contested gubernatorial race in the country on the ballot and Senator Richard Burr still relatively undefined, I thought we would already be watching ads by now—not that I’m too disappointed.
So what gives? In 2014, the Senate race was at the top of the ticket. This year, the presidential race will drive most the cycle. The Senate race in North Carolina is still murky. Democrats have a primary between relatively unknown candidates. Nobody is going to be shooting at Burr until the national super PACs and nonprofits are sure they’ve got a viable opponent. Burr, for his part, is sitting on his money for the same reason.
The gubernatorial race will probably be the marquee race in North Carolina. It’s the one that has the biggest stakes for policy and politics for the next four years. Democrats want to unseat Pat McCrory and then take enough seats in the legislature to prevent a veto-proof majority. McCrory suffers from low approval ratings and has been hampered by ethics problems throughout his tenure. Cooper suffers from lower name recognition and is still relatively unknown to the electorate.
I’m surprised we haven’t seen ads from pro-Cooper groups slamming McCrory to keep his numbers low. Candidate McCrory is better than Governor McCrory and if he can stay away from his real job and just cut ribbons and make announcements, he might be able to rebound. He comes across as likable and approachable when he’s not having to defend his record or his honor.
On the flip side, I’m surprised the McCrory people haven’t started trying to define Cooper before he can define himself. In 2014, the Tillis campaign drove Kay Hagan’s negatives to almost 50% and they never really came down after that. I expected the same tactics by the GOP this year.
Maybe they’re waiting until after the presidential primaries to get a better read on the political environment. Maybe most of the money is focused on the presidential contests. Regardless, we’re getting a reprieve compared to 2014. I doubt it will last much longer so enjoy it while you can.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Wow, D.g., I think you’ve hit on an issue that will certainly resonate with the voters in next year’s Senate election campaign: permitting ‘teacher assistants to write’ and deliver lesson plans.” No need for the Democrats to focus on national security or economic issues. Just hammer away at Sen. Burr for letting teacher assistants write lesson plans.
And how foolish of Senator Burr to criticize the ACA. Surely he doesn’t believe all those public opinion surveys that consistently show a majority of the public are opposed to Obamacare. He must think the average middle class family is being hit hard by higher premiums, deductions and copays. Doesn’t he know that paying these higher medical costs lets families avoid paying a penalty of 2.5 percent of their income to the IRS? What a good deal for everyone!
Personally, i believe the democratic establishment is blowing 2016. We should be mobilizing voter registration, given papers to hand out with talking points both pro the Lining up good candidates. I like Holly’s pushto invite us to nominate potential candidates, but I also resent the fact that the establishment has joined the process in ignoring Bernie Sanders Even without adequate press he is speaking Truth so a lot of us. Hillary may have the skills, but she has the baggage. I have had reasonable people say they can’t stand her because the believe the garbage they hear. Ge active. Get on Face book, etc. and kick Roy Cooper into gear. He is too passive. Intel Citizen’s united is dumped the Democrats need to get creative to get the word out.
Good points, but I have heard much more of the Hillary as evil than Bernie as evil. I am deeply concerned that Hillary is way too close to Wall Street, etc, and there will be no real changes in that area.
I’d like to see a Sanders/Warren ticket to clean out Wall St and the greedy.
The GOP may have “too much to worry about this go round,” but it’s mainly amongst themselves, IMO.
Nationally, the Repubs are too preoccupied (apoplectic? stunned? terrorized?) by the still-rising candidacy of the xenophobic, racist and amateurish Trump. Meanwhile, in NC, the NCGOP seems to be engaged in its own internecine warfare, with the more-ubers and less-ubers sniping at each other in the Senate and House. And, of course, party leaders continue to be only lukewarm in their support of McCrory (if not outright hostile to him) as a second-term governor.
Don’t jinx it.