Democrats had a bad night in the State Senate last week. They fared a little better in the House, though, but Republicans maintained their veto-proof majority there as well, despite losing four seats. Let me remind you that the goal of Democrats was to eliminate those veto-proof majorities. As Dr. Andrew Taylor of North Carolina State University said: “They had pretty low expectations in the state legislative races this time around, and they didn’t even manage to meet those.”

Let’s take a look now and explore all the various competitive House races, noting where Democrats fell short, where they exceeded expectations, and how our forecasts fared when stacked up against the final election results.

House District 2: Yarborough (R) vs. Jeffers (D)
PoliticsNC rating: Leans Republican
Final result: R+13
***GOP PICK-UP***

This district is Person County and part of Granville County. Lots of Blue Dog Democrats here, and they pulled the lever decisively for Republicans this year. That Republican Yarborough won in this open seat is not a surprise, but his margin of victory was certainly surprising, at least to me. If old-school rural Democrats maintain their distaste for modern Democrats, then I don’t see how the blue team takes this seat back before the next redistricting cycle.

House District 3: Speciale (R, incumbent) vs. Whitley (D)
PoliticsNC rating: Likely Republican
Final result: R+16

Speciale is a controversial figure, but this is a very Republican district and in a Republican wave year he performed about as well as you’d expect him to perform. This is another area of NC where a decade ago Democrats were competitive, but white rural voters simply don’t go for that anymore. Speciale is probably safe and will continue to be a Tea Party hero.

House District 6: Tine (D, incumbent) vs. Lawson (R)
PoliticsNC rating: Likely Democratic
Final result: D+7

Tine deserves a lot of praise for being in such a Republican district and being able to resist the GOP wave nationally. Lawson is a Tea Party favorite who was back for a rematch and didn’t do as well as she did last time. Eastern NC voters tend to be pro-incumbent, so Tine might be able to continue to defy the partisan lean of his district.

House District 9: Brown (R, incumbent) vs. Ward (D)
PoliticsNC rating: Leans Republican
Final result: R+20

I had this as Leans Republican, probably my most embarrassing call. It should have been Likely Republican at the very least. Brown won by only 3 points in 2012, 20 points this year. One might think this is because his opponent this time around was a college senior. But Ward actually ran a credible campaign. He had money, signs, was supported by the Democratic establishment and his campaign was even able to commission a poll by PPP. So what happened? Clearly, ECU students failed to turn out. That made for an electorate that was less Greenville and more rural Pitt County, which like most of rural North Carolina tends to be pro-incumbent. The college student vote might return in 2016, but Brown or any other Republican will be favored here in any case.

House District 22: Brisson (D, incumbent) vs. Smith (R)
PoliticsNC rating: Not covered
Final result: D+4

I didn’t even bother to cover this race because Smith had less than $1,000 on hand according to the latest reports, which usually means you’re not going to come within single digits of a seasoned incumbent. I’m guessing Brisson didn’t do much campaigning, but I don’t know for sure. Looks like voters here saw the (D) next to his name and voted against him. Once Brisson retires, this seat is gone for Democrats. Though, to be quite frank, it might as well be gone for them already.

House District 35: Malone (R, incumbent) vs. Mountcastle (D)
PoliticsNC rating: Leans Republican
Final result: R+13

Should have made this one Likely Republican. Democrats made some noise about competing here early on, but this one kind of fell off the radar. Malone won by less than 2 points in 2012, but there were some special circumstances which made that race close. This time, he actually won by a larger margin than any other GOP House candidate in Wake County (with the exception of Paul Stam, who ran unopposed.)

House District 36: Dollar (R, incumbent) vs. Baker (D)
PoliticsNC rating: Likely Republican
Final result: R+9

There was an anti-GOP legislature backlash in Wake County, but it didn’t affect Nelson Dollar. He won by slightly less than he did last time around, against the same opponent. In the absence of a national Republican wave, or against a better-funded opponent, the race would have probably been much closer. Still, this district still favors Republicans and Dollar will probably be on the very fringe of vulnerability next cycle.

House District 40: Avila (R, incumbent) vs. Broadwell (D)
PoliticsNC rating: Likely Republican
Final result: R+9

This district is trending Democratic, especially in the southern part of the district around Morrisville. Once again, some legislative backlash, but it didn’t count for much against an opponent who didn’t have much money. If this district becomes open, there should be a competitive race here. It should be pretty purple, regardless, by the end of the decade.

House District 41: Murry (R, incumbent) vs. Adcock (D)
PoliticsNC rating: Pure Toss-Up
Final result: D+3
***DEM PICK-UP***

This district, which has the highest proportion of unaffiliated voters in the state, was always going to be a very tough hold for the GOP. A district that is already trending blue was also clearly impacted by the anti-legislative backlash in Wake County. Murry kept it close but it was not enough against Cary Town Councilwoman Gale Adcock, touted as perhaps the Democrats’ strongest recruit of the cycle.

House District 44: Glazier (D, incumbent) vs. Button
PoliticsNC rating: Likely Democratic
Final result: D+5

One wonders if the GOP would have been able to pick this up had the first two years of total GOP control not been so tumultuous. Glazier looks like a vulnerable incumbent and Republicans would love to pick up this seat, but Cumberland County is one of those areas where the Democratic dropoff in midterms is greatest, so Glazier will probably start off with an advantage next time around.

That’s all for now. Part 2 will be up later. The big takeaway is that this looked like a normal midterm election in North Carolina, with the exception of Wake County and the Triangle generally, where there was a noticeable anti-legislative backlash. People there tend to be high-information voters and it also helps that Raleigh is right next door. The goings-on in the state capital aren’t so readily picked up by news outlets in other parts of the state. It’s possible the Democrats could have had a good year at the state level, but the stuff going on nationally really put a monkey wrench in their plans. Democrats better hope that in 2016 Obama isn’t as much of a drag on their prospects as he was this year.